The 2025/26 Premier League season has entered its decisive phase, and the narrative is shifting once again. Arsenal currently sit atop the summit with 56 points, but the six-point cushion they held over Manchester City has suddenly felt a lot less comfortable following City’s dramatic resurgence at Anfield. With just 13 games remaining, the question on everyone’s lips is simple yet complex: Can Pep Guardiola’s side steal the title from Mikel Arteta’s men?
To answer this, we must look beyond the current table and dissect the immediate future. Here is a comparative analysis of the next five fixtures for both giants, assessing who has the smoother path to glory.
The Road Ahead: Arsenal’s Test of Character
Mikel Arteta’s side has been the model of consistency, boasting the league’s best defense. However, their upcoming schedule presents a tricky mix of banana skins and potential banana skins.
Their run begins with a trip to Brentford. The Bees are a mid-table side known for their physicality at home, making this a medium-difficulty opener. Following that, Arsenal should theoretically find their rhythm against Everton at the Emirates—a side entrenched in a relegation battle. A trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers follows, and while the Molineux outfit is bottom of the table and winless, playing away in the Premier League is never a “gimme.”
The real acid test for the Gunners comes on Matchday 29: a North London Derby away at Tottenham. Spurs are inconsistent but dangerous at home, and this fixture represents the highest hurdle in Arsenal’s next five. They round off the stint against West Ham United at home. While the Hammers are physical, Arsenal’s home form should see them through, provided they aren’t suffering from a European hangover.
The Home Advantage: Man City’s Opportunity
In contrast, Manchester City finds itself in a position to capitalize on the home crowd. Three of their next five games are at the Etihad, a venue where they traditionally dismantle opposition.
They start with back-to-back home games against Fulham and Everton. On paper, these are “easy” fixtures against sides struggling for form. This provides City with the perfect platform to rack up points and apply pressure. The challenge increases slightly with a home clash against Newcastle United, a solid top-eight side, but the Etihad advantage should still favor the champions.
However, it’s the away trips that could define City’s season. A visit to newly promoted Leeds United is always fraught with emotion and intensity, while a trip to West Ham United to round off the five games presents a stern test against a team that loves to spoil the party.
The Verdict: Can City Bridge the Gap?
Mathematically, the odds are stacked against City. To overhaul a six-point deficit over 13 games, they essentially need Arsenal to drop points while maintaining a near-perfect record themselves. However, momentum is a powerful drug.
City’s recent comeback at Anfield proves their “champion’s DNA” is still very much active. Their fixture list is arguably more favorable in terms of venue, with three consecutive home games allowing them to build rhythm. If Arsenal slip up in the North London Derby, the pressure will shift instantly.
Conclusion: While Arsenal holds the cards with a more consistent squad and arguably weaker opponents on paper, Manchester City has a realistic 30-40% chance of stealing the title. The gap is closing, and if the Gunners show nerves at Spurs, the Etihad could be celebrating another dramatic title triumph come May.
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