The La Liga title race is heating up as Real Madrid travels to the historic Mestalla Stadium this Sunday to face a Valencia side fighting for their lives. Manager Álvaro Arbeloa knows that anything less than three points could be fatal to their championship ambitions, as they currently trail leaders Barcelona by four points. For the hosts, sitting in the relegation zone, this fixture represents a golden opportunity to pull off a shock against a depleted Madrid giant.
Form and Stakes
The contrast in form and objectives could not be starker. Valencia, currently 18th with just 23 points from 22 games, has endured a dismal run of results. Their defense has been porous, conceding 1.45 goals per game, while their attack has been toothless, averaging under a goal per game (0.77). However, Mestalla remains a fortress where they hope to harness the crowd’s energy to escape the drop zone.
In contrast, Real Madrid sits comfortably in second place with 49 points. Despite trailing Barcelona, they have been solid on the road, losing just twice away from home. With 47 goals scored this season, they boast the league’s most potent attack. A win here is essential to keep the pressure on the Catalans before the weekend concludes.
Injury Crisis for Los Blancos
Arbeloa faces a massive selection headache due to suspensions and injuries. The attacking trident has been decimated: Vinícius Júnior is suspended following his fifth yellow card of the season, Jude Bellingham is sidelined with a hamstring issue, and Rodrygo is also absent. On the defensive side, Ferland Mendy and Éder Militão remain unavailable.
However, there is a silver lining. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Antonio Rüdiger could return to the fold, providing much-needed experience. With the stars out, the responsibility will fall on Kylian Mbappé to lead the line. Supported by Brahim Díaz and the young Franco Mastantuono, Mbappé—who leads the league with 18 goals—will be the focal point of Madrid’s attack.
Valencia manager Rubén Baraja, meanwhile, has a relatively clean bill of health. With Hugo Duro and Pepelu expected to start, the home side will look to their compact setup to frustrate a Madrid side missing their creative spark.
Head-to-Head History
Historically, Mestalla has been a happy hunting ground for the hosts, who have won 46 of the 104 meetings held there. However, recent trends favor the visitors. Real Madrid remains unbeaten in their last five trips to Valencia, winning three and drawing two. Last season, the two sides played out a chaotic 2-2 draw at this venue, though Madrid exacted revenge with a 5-1 thrashing at the Bernabéu.
Key Battles
Mbappé vs. the Valencia Defense: Without Vinícius to stretch the play, Valencia’s defense—specifically Copete and Cömert—will attempt to crowd out Mbappé. The Frenchman’s movement will be crucial in unlocking a stubborn low block.
Midfield Control: The energy of Valencia’s Pepelu against the control of Madrid’s Aurélien Tchouaméni will be decisive. Valencia leads the league in tackles (22 per game) and will look to disrupt Madrid’s rhythm early.
Prediction
Despite the absences, Real Madrid‘s depth and quality should eventually prevail. Valencia will likely make it difficult, especially with the home crowd behind them, but Mbappé’s individual quality could be the difference-maker.
Prediction: Valencia 1–2 Real Madrid